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French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

Elections Vol. $85,386 50 traders

Raphaël Glucksmann100%
Marine Le Pen100%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon100%
Olivier Faure100%
$85,386 Vol. Elections

Outcomes

21
Chance
Éric Zemmour
79% ▲ 1
Jordan Bardella
10%
Michel Barnier
9%
Valérie Pécresse
6%
Gabriel Attal Resolved
90% ▲ 9
Élisabeth Borne
8%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
7% ▼ 2
Jean Castex
2%
Gérald Darmanin
6% ▼ 1
Sébastien Lecornu
9%
François Bayrou
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
45% ▼ 5
Carole Delga
4% ▼ 1
Olivier Faure Resolved
90% ▲ 50
François Hollande
54% ▼ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann Resolved
90% ▲ 13
Manuel Bompard
5% ▼ 1
Jean-Luc Mélenchon Resolved
90% ▲ 3
Mathilde Panot
1% ▼ 2
Dominique de Villepin
50% ▲ 3
Marine Le Pen Resolved
90% ▲ 2

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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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