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Jerome Powell predictions & odds

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$200.3MVol. 16 sept fomc

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 2% Yes No
3 more
$3.0MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

77%

Chance

Yes77¢ No41¢
$9.9MVol. 9 dec CPI Release

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 1% Yes No
June Meeting 1% Yes No
3 more
$3.8MVol. 29 oct Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 85% Yes No
1 (25 bps) 5% Yes No
11 more
$52.6MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Inflation 40+ times 20% Yes No
Inflation 20+ times 75% Yes No
20 more
$91.0KVol. 17 sept Fed

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 3% Yes No
3 more
$886.5KVol. 10 dec Fed