Trump predictions & odds

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%

Chance

Yes6¢ No41¢

$21.3MVol. 1 jan Crypto

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 2% Yes No

$3.0MVol. 29 oct Fed

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No41¢

$66.4MVol. 1 jan Military Strikes

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

July 24 1% Yes No

July 31 1% Yes No

$28.7MVol. 1 jan Iran

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Inflation 40+ times 20% Yes No

Inflation 20+ times 75% Yes No

$91.0KVol. 17 sept Fed

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 3% Yes No

$886.5KVol. 10 dec Fed