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Fed Decision in October?

Fed·fomc·Trump

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

53%

25 bps increase

48%

50+ bps increase

<1%

WhaleWatch-31101

SheltonDoubter currently holds $21,953.03 on 25 bps increase with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

ItsRigg3d

From 2020 to 2022 inflation saw a government spending based spike from 1% to 9% and they waited for Biden to leave to push rates above 4%, now they want to be hawkish at 3.4% inflation. The Federal Reserve is just a political body at this p

vapordip

the first hike just went official and october's already a coin flip, glad I got my polybro running on this one lol

cay91187

no change i think

convictiontrap

gg

alwaystrade

Hi

AlexxHamilton

gg

Neogenesis

they will hike in October as well

WhaleWatch-31101

SheltonDoubter currently holds $21,953.03 on 25 bps increase with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

ItsRigg3d

From 2020 to 2022 inflation saw a government spending based spike from 1% to 9% and they waited for Biden to leave to push rates above 4%, now they want to be hawkish at 3.4% inflation. The Federal Reserve is just a political body at this p

vapordip

the first hike just went official and october's already a coin flip, glad I got my polybro running on this one lol

cay91187

no change i think

convictiontrap

gg

alwaystrade

Hi

AlexxHamilton

gg

Neogenesis

they will hike in October as well

WhaleWatch-31101

SheltonDoubter currently holds $21,953.03 on 25 bps increase with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

ItsRigg3d

From 2020 to 2022 inflation saw a government spending based spike from 1% to 9% and they waited for Biden to leave to push rates above 4%, now they want to be hawkish at 3.4% inflation. The Federal Reserve is just a political body at this p

vapordip

the first hike just went official and october's already a coin flip, glad I got my polybro running on this one lol

cay91187

no change i think

convictiontrap

gg

alwaystrade

Hi

AlexxHamilton

gg

Neogenesis

they will hike in October as well

25 bps decrease<1%

No change53%

25 bps increase48%

50+ bps increase<1%

$6.0M Vol

Ends Oct 29, 2026

Economy

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$6.0MVol. 29 oct Fed

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$1.2MVol. 18 sept BOJ

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 87% Yes No
1 (25 bps) 2% Yes No
11 more
$52.9MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 2% Yes No
3 more
$993.2KVol. 10 dec Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 1% Yes No
March Meeting 1% Yes No
11 more
$3.7MVol. 8 jan Jerome Powell

Largest Company end of September?

Alphabet 1% Yes No
Tesla 1% Yes No
23 more
$2.0MVol. 1 oct Tech

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 64% Yes No
Microsoft 1% Yes No
26 more
$7.4MVol. 31 dec Economy

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.5% 90% Yes No
4.6% 90% Yes No
9 more
$494.6KVol. 31 dec Economy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No41¢
$11.8MVol. 31 dec Politics

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike 36% Yes No
Hike–Pause–Pause 13% Yes No
7 more
$61.6KVol. 10 dec Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

69%

Chance

Yes69¢ No41¢
$24.4KVol. 9 dec Fed

Bank of England decision in November?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$95.7KVol. 6 nov BOE

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

Below 4.45% 2% Yes No
Below 4.51% 2% Yes No
7 more
$48.3KVol. 30 sept Economy

US recession by end of 2026?

8%

Chance

Yes8¢ No41¢
$2.0MVol. 31 dec Business

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?

Below 4.95% 1% Yes No
Below 5.00% 3% Yes No
7 more
$28.6KVol. 30 sept Economy

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$108.6KVol. 30 oct BOJ

September Inflation US - Annual

≤2.9% 1% Yes No
3.0% 1% Yes No
10 more
$24.1KVol. 15 oct CPI

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

5.30% 90% Yes No
5.33% 90% Yes No
7 more
$32.0KVol. 30 sept Economy

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$150.5KVol. 29 oct ECB

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$48.4KVol. 29 oct RBNZ