Sign Up

Featured markets

Fed Decision in October?

Fed·fomc·Trump

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

53%

25 bps increase

48%

50+ bps increase

<1%

WhaleWatch-31101

SheltonDoubter currently holds $21,953.03 on 25 bps increase with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

ItsRigg3d

From 2020 to 2022 inflation saw a government spending based spike from 1% to 9% and they waited for Biden to leave to push rates above 4%, now they want to be hawkish at 3.4% inflation. The Federal Reserve is just a political body at this p

vapordip

the first hike just went official and october's already a coin flip, glad I got my polybro running on this one lol

cay91187

no change i think

convictiontrap

gg

alwaystrade

Hi

AlexxHamilton

gg

Neogenesis

they will hike in October as well

WhaleWatch-31101

SheltonDoubter currently holds $21,953.03 on 25 bps increase with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

ItsRigg3d

From 2020 to 2022 inflation saw a government spending based spike from 1% to 9% and they waited for Biden to leave to push rates above 4%, now they want to be hawkish at 3.4% inflation. The Federal Reserve is just a political body at this p

vapordip

the first hike just went official and october's already a coin flip, glad I got my polybro running on this one lol

cay91187

no change i think

convictiontrap

gg

alwaystrade

Hi

AlexxHamilton

gg

Neogenesis

they will hike in October as well

WhaleWatch-31101

SheltonDoubter currently holds $21,953.03 on 25 bps increase with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

ItsRigg3d

From 2020 to 2022 inflation saw a government spending based spike from 1% to 9% and they waited for Biden to leave to push rates above 4%, now they want to be hawkish at 3.4% inflation. The Federal Reserve is just a political body at this p

vapordip

the first hike just went official and october's already a coin flip, glad I got my polybro running on this one lol

cay91187

no change i think

convictiontrap

gg

alwaystrade

Hi

AlexxHamilton

gg

Neogenesis

they will hike in October as well

25 bps decrease<1%

No change53%

25 bps increase48%

50+ bps increase<1%

$6.0M Vol

Ends Oct 29, 2026

Fed

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$6.0MVol. 29 oct Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 87% Yes No
1 (25 bps) 2% Yes No
11 more
$52.9MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 2% Yes No
3 more
$993.2KVol. 10 dec Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 1% Yes No
March Meeting 1% Yes No
11 more
$3.7MVol. 8 jan Jerome Powell

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 1% Yes No
1 (25 bps) 17% Yes No
4 more
$485.5KVol. 1 jan Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike 35% Yes No
Hike–Pause–Pause 13% Yes No
7 more
$61.6KVol. 10 dec Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

69%

Chance

Yes69¢ No41¢
$24.4KVol. 9 dec Fed

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

2.25% 1% Yes No
2.5% 1% Yes No
13 more
$6.9MVol. 9 dec Fed Rates

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

3%

Chance

Yes3¢ No41¢
$24.1KVol. 1 jan Fed

Fed Decision in January?

50+ bps decrease 4% Yes No
25 bps decrease 9% Yes No
3 more
$83.7KVol. 28 jan Fed

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.0% 3% Yes No
↑ 5.5% 2% Yes No
19 more
$1.8MVol. 31 dec Jerome Powell

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

3%

Chance

Yes3¢ No41¢
$222.8KVol. 1 jan Business

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

September 30 1% Yes No
October 31 1% Yes No
2 more
$23.2KVol. 1 jan Fed

How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?

0 39% Yes No
1 18% Yes No
3 more
$3.7KVol. 29 oct Fed

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

December 31, 2026 3% Yes No
June 30, 2027 9% Yes No
$40.5KVol. 1 jul Fed

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

May 30 1% Yes No
December 31 18% Yes No
$447.3KVol. 1 jan Fed Chair

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No
3 more
$31.3KVol. 1 jan Politics

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

October 31 31% Yes No
November 30 23% Yes No
1 more
$99Vol. 1 jan Fed

How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?

0 17% Yes No
1 15% Yes No
3 more
$8.2KVol. 10 dec Fed

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

0 17% Yes No
1 18% Yes No
3 more
$10.0KVol. 28 jan Fed